At 180,000 tonnes, March 2026 stands out as one of the highest monthly cotton import volumes in five years. According to official customs data, the March figure represents a 5.9% increase from February and a staggering 137% year-on-year surge. The first-quarter total of 550,000 tonnes signals a structural shift in how Chinese textile mills are sourcing their raw materials.
Drivers Behind the Import Surge
This is no isolated spike. The 2025/26 season (September 2025 to March 2026) cumulative imports of 1.05 million tonnes, up 28% year-on-year, show that mills have been accelerating purchases for months. Industry data points to two key drivers: first, the persistent price gap of 1,500-2,000 yuan per tonne between domestic and international cotton, which gives importers a significant cost advantage; second, ongoing concerns over Xinjiang cotton restrictions, prompting export-oriented mills to boost imported cotton ratios to stay compliant with overseas buyers.
The relatively modest 5.9% month-on-month rise in March masks a powerful base effect: March 2025 saw only about 76,000 tonnes imported. This combination of low base and high growth confirms that mills have shifted from reactive replenishment to proactive stockpiling over the past year.
Ripple Effects Up and Down the Chain
The influx of imported cotton is first felt in domestic prices. On the Zhengzhou Cotton Exchange, open interest has grown over the past three months, yet the main contract has struggled to break through 15,500 yuan per tonne—a sign that the market has already priced in the import pressure. For Xinjiang cotton producers, this means a portion of domestic orders is being diverted to imports. In major textile provinces like Shandong and Jiangsu, the share of imported cotton used by spinning mills has risen from roughly 30% in 2024 to nearly 45% today.
For downstream fabric and garment makers, the price battle at the raw material level is transmitting to finished goods. Yarn spun from imported cotton performs similarly to Xinjiang cotton in terms of strength and evenness, but the cost advantage gives grey fabric mills more pricing flexibility. Several export-oriented weaving mills have stated that for spring/summer 2026 orders, they will prioritize imported cotton yarn to maintain competitive FOB quotes.
Window of Opportunity and Risk Factors
While imports remain heavy, two variables bear watching. First, ICE cotton futures oscillating in the 75-80 cents/lb range could spike if US growing regions face weather premiums, narrowing the price spread and slowing import momentum. Second, about 40% of the annual sliding-duty quota has been used in Q1; if quota tightens in the second half, import volumes may decelerate.