In the first four months of 2026, China's textile and apparel foreign trade showed a clear structural divergence: textile intermediates exports grew steadily while finished garment exports contracted slightly. Meanwhile, international crude oil prices have climbed back above $100 per barrel, sharply increasing raw material costs for chemical fibers and posing new challenges for already thin-margin textile enterprises. This mixed picture of hot and cold forces the industry to reassess product mix and market strategies.
Intermediates Strengthen, Garments Under Pressure
Customs data show that from January to April 2026, China's exports of textile yarns, fabrics, and products totaled $46.896 billion, up 2.3% year-on-year, an increase of $1.06 billion compared to the same period in 2025. April alone saw exports of $12.705 billion, steady performance. This growth is mainly driven by overseas textile manufacturers' reliance on high-quality, stable-supply Chinese fabrics and yarns. Production fluctuations in parts of Southeast Asia have led international buyers to favor China's mature supply chain.
In contrast, garment exports during the same period totaled $44.231 billion, down 0.9% year-on-year, a decrease of about $380 million from 2025. April exports were $11.348 billion. Although the decline is narrowing, weak global consumer demand, slower destocking by overseas brands, and competition from low-cost garment production in Southeast Asia continue to pressure domestic garment exports. The divergence between intermediates and finished goods reflects a deeper shift from "manufacturing output" to "material output."
Surging Imports Signal Strong Domestic Demand
Echoing the export divergence, textile imports grew much faster than expected. From January to April 2026, China's imports of textile yarns, fabrics, and products totaled $3.774 billion, a sharp 19.1% increase year-on-year, adding $600 million compared to 2025. April imports alone were $1.091 billion, also showing strong growth.
The import surge directly reflects the vitality of domestic textile production. As downstream weaving and garment factories operate at high capacity, restocking demand has been released, particularly for high-end fabrics and specialty yarns. This indicates that the domestic market is steadily recovering, with the supply chain operating at fuller capacity. Import growth does not mean "replacing domestic capacity" but rather "filling high-end gaps," signaling an upgrade in quality.
Oil Breaks $100, Cost Pressure Accelerates
On May 11, 2026, WTI crude oil prices broke through the $100 per barrel mark again, with a daily gain of 4.8%. Geopolitical risks and global supply concerns have pushed oil prices higher, directly raising the cost of chemical fiber raw materials for the textile industry.
Oil is the core upstream feedstock for polyester, nylon, and other synthetic fibers. For every 10% increase in oil prices, chemical fiber production costs rise by about 3%-5%. Polyester staple fiber prices have already shown signs of following suit, and this cost pressure will likely pass through to grey fabrics, dyeing, and even garments within one to two months. For small and medium-sized textile enterprises with razor-thin margins, rising raw material costs combined with higher logistics and energy expenses will further squeeze profitability.
Notably, the resilience of intermediate exports partly stems from their technical content and delivery reliability. However, if costs remain high, overseas buyers may reassess sourcing strategies and turn to more cost-competitive regions. Exporters must stay flexible in price negotiations and enhance bargaining power through product innovation.