In the first four months of 2026, China's textile and apparel exports presented a clear picture of contrasts. According to customs data, exports of textile yarns, fabrics, and products reached $46.896 billion, up 2.3% year-on-year, while exports of garments and apparel accessories totaled $44.231 billion, down 0.9% year-on-year. The divergence between intermediate goods and finished garments is now unmistakable.
Resilience in Intermediate Goods
The sustained growth in textile intermediate exports is no coincidence. Supply disruptions in some overseas producing regions, coupled with global brands' heightened demand for supply chain stability, have made China's mature fabric and yarn products a more reliable choice. Cumulative exports of intermediates in the first four months increased by approximately $1.06 billion compared to the same period in 2025. While the growth rate is modest, it is commendable against a backdrop of weak global consumption.
Notably, April's monthly export value of intermediates stood at $12.7051 billion, remaining stable month-on-month. This indicates that overseas weaving mills have not significantly slowed their procurement pace despite sluggish end-demand. China's role as the 'ballast stone' for global textile intermediate supply is strengthening, particularly for high-quality, fast-delivery orders that are increasingly flowing to domestic suppliers.
Apparel Exports: Adjustment, Not Collapse
The slight decline in apparel exports reflects structural pressures rather than a systemic crisis. The cumulative drop of 0.9% in the first four months narrowed from the first quarter, suggesting that the bottom is firming. The recovery of low-end apparel capacity in Southeast Asia has diverted some orders—this is an objective fact. However, the core of China's garment export base remains intact, with April's monthly exports still at a high $11.3479 billion.
For buyers, this signals that the comprehensive advantages of Chinese garment factories—quality, delivery reliability, and compliance—remain difficult to replace in the short term. For mid-to-high-end categories, overseas brands have very low tolerance for supply chain errors, and the bargaining power of domestic factories has not been significantly eroded by the slight volume decline.
Surge in Imports: A Hard Indicator of Domestic Recovery
Import data offers the best window into domestic production activity. Cumulative imports of textile yarns, fabrics, and products in the first four months reached $3.7739 billion, a sharp 19.1% increase from $3.1695 billion in the same period of 2025. The growth rate far exceeds that of exports, indicating that capacity utilization in domestic weaving, dyeing, and garment manufacturing is rapidly increasing, with companies showing strong restocking intentions.
This growth is not purely price-driven. The rising share of imported high-end fabrics and specialty yarns reflects a shift in downstream demand toward differentiation and functionality. For domestic fabric suppliers, this presents both a challenge—competing with imports—and an opportunity, as the expanding domestic market offers a richer testing ground for innovative products.
Crude Oil Breaks $100: The Chain Reaction of Cost Pass-Through
On May 11, WTI crude oil prices again breached $100 per barrel, with a daily gain of 4.8%. As the direct upstream feedstock for man-made fibers like polyester and nylon, oil price movements transmit to spinning and weaving within weeks. Man-made fiber raw materials account for about 30% to 40% of textile production costs. Every 10% increase in oil prices raises the industry's overall cost burden by 3 to 4 percentage points.
More critically, oil price hikes not only push up raw material costs but also drive up expenses for dyeing auxiliaries and logistics. Small and medium-sized textile enterprises are caught in a 'two-sided squeeze': upstream raw materials rise, while downstream customers have limited tolerance for price increases. The export price index for garments in April showed a slight decline, indicating that price pass-through in the end market is not smooth, further compressing profit margins.