In the first four months of 2026, China's textile and apparel foreign trade delivered a mixed picture: textile intermediate goods exports grew steadily by 2.3%, while garment exports edged down 0.9%. Meanwhile, international crude oil prices once again breached the $100 per barrel mark, casting a new shadow over industry costs. This structural divergence is reshaping the survival logic for foreign trade enterprises.
Divergent Trajectories: Intermediates vs. Garments
According to publicly available data from China Customs, from January to April 2026, exports of textile yarns, fabrics, and products totaled $46.896 billion, up 2.3% year-on-year. In contrast, exports of garments and apparel accessories reached $44.231 billion, down 0.9% from the same period in 2025. The contrast between intermediate goods and finished apparel is stark.
The resilience of intermediate goods exports stems from China's mature industrial chain and stable delivery capabilities. When production capacity fluctuates in some Southeast Asian regions, overseas brands tend to favor domestic high-quality yarns and fabrics, directly boosting intermediate goods exports. For buyers, this means the irreplaceability of Chinese textile raw materials will persist in the short term.
On the other hand, garment exports face a weak global consumer market, slower destocking by overseas brands, and shrinking new orders. Combined with competition from low-end garment production capacity in Southeast Asia, domestic labor-intensive garment exports are under significant pressure. However, the narrowing decline suggests the sector's fundamentals remain stable, avoiding a cliff-edge drop.
Import Surge of 19.1%: Direct Evidence of Domestic Activity
In contrast to the export divergence, textile imports grew far faster than expected. From January to April 2026, imports of textile yarns, fabrics, and products reached $3.7739 billion, up 19.1% year-on-year. This data directly confirms the acceleration of production resumption in the domestic textile chain, with downstream weaving and garment manufacturers releasing concentrated restocking demand.
The high import growth also reflects steady recovery in domestic demand. Rising imports of high-end fabrics and specialty yarns indicate that domestic enterprises are shifting toward higher value-added product structures. For foreign trade firms, the recovery in domestic demand can partially offset weak external demand, creating a dual-circulation buffer.
Oil Above $100: Full-Chain Cost Pressure on Chemical Fibers
On May 11, 2026, WTI crude oil prices once again broke through $100 per barrel, with intraday gains of 4.8%. As the core upstream raw material for chemical fiber products, rising oil prices will directly push up procurement costs for polyester, nylon, and other chemical fibers. Chemical fiber raw materials account for a significant share of textile production costs, and price fluctuations quickly transmit downstream along the industrial chain.
More concerning is that the oil price hike affects not only raw materials but also drives up costs across all links—weaving, dyeing and finishing, and logistics. For small and medium-sized enterprises with already thin profit margins, cost control becomes even more challenging. Industry data shows chemical fiber raw materials can account for 30% to 50% of fabric production costs. Every 10% rise in oil prices may squeeze fabric companies' gross margins by 2 to 5 percentage points.