A monthly import volume of 210,000 tons of cotton yarn is an alarming figure by any standard of the past five years. According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported approximately 210,000 tons of cotton yarn in March 2026, a month-on-month increase of about 80,000 tons or over 60%, and a year-on-year surge of 65.7%.
Signals Behind the Numbers
The first-quarter cumulative figure is equally striking: from January to March 2026, China imported about 510,000 tons of cotton yarn, up 49.8% year-on-year. For the entire 2025/26 season (September 2025 to March 2026), cumulative imports reached approximately 1.10 million tons, a 31.0% increase year-on-year. This volume surpasses the highs of the same period in 2021, when the global textile supply chain was in a post-pandemic restocking cycle.
The primary driver is the price spread between domestic and imported yarn. Since the second half of 2025, quotes from major exporting countries like India, Vietnam, and Pakistan have consistently undercut domestic prices for the same count, with the spread widening to RMB 1,500-2,000 per ton. For coastal weaving mills, the cost advantage of imported yarn became irresistible in Q1 2026.
Downstream Absorption and Inventory Concerns
On the other side of the import surge is a recovery in weaving mill utilization. Industry data shows that air-jet loom utilization in Jiangsu and Zhejiang averaged around 75% in March 2026, up nearly 10 percentage points from the start of the year. However, grey fabric inventories have also been accumulating in parallel, with some mills' finished goods inventory days rising from 25 to over 35 days. This suggests that end-order absorption has not kept pace with raw material procurement.
At the industrial cluster level, the reaction is more tangible. In major cotton yarn distribution hubs like Zhangcha (Foshan, Guangdong) and Qianqing (Shaoxing, Zhejiang), traders reported a noticeable slowdown in offtake since late March, with some warehouses experiencing overflow. The sheer volume of imported yarn arrivals, combined with cautious buying from fabric mills, has led to rapid port inventory buildup.
Transmission Effects Across the Chain
The import wave is reshaping the competitive landscape of China's cotton spinning sector. For upstream spinners, 210,000 tons of imports effectively displace about 200,000-250,000 tons of domestic capacity. Small and medium-sized spinning mills in Henan and Shandong report that ex-factory prices for C32S carded cotton yarn have been cut by RMB 300-500 per ton since March, yet they still struggle to compete with imported yarn.
For weaving and garment manufacturers, the short-term raw material cost reduction is a boon, but a warning is warranted: a massive influx of imported yarn could drag down the entire cotton yarn price floor, triggering a chain reaction in domestic cotton prices. If the spread between Xinjiang cotton and imported yarn widens further, export-oriented apparel companies may face heightened pressure regarding raw material traceability.
Outlook and Judgment
Seasonally, April and May are peak arrival months for imported cotton yarn, so March's 210,000 tons may not be the year's peak. However, market divergence is already emerging: Pakistani yarn quotes have begun to rebound in April due to rising energy costs, while Indian yarn is still being discounted amid weak domestic demand.
For buyers, the key question is whether this import surge represents a genuine restocking cycle or a mere inventory transfer. Given the signs of slowing grey fabric offtake, the latter scenario appears increasingly likely.