At the close of the morning session on May 14, major domestic textile futures showed a clear divergence. Cotton yarn contract 2607 edged up 0.16% to 22,390 points, while staple fiber, bottle-grade chip, and PTA all fell over 1.7%, with staple fiber 2607 dropping 1.98% to 7,936 points. Cotton 2609 slipped 0.09% to 16,460 points. This pattern is not coincidental but reflects the deep contradictions along the textile supply chain.
Chemical Fiber Sector: Squeezed by Cost Collapse and Weak Demand
The collective weakness in staple fiber, PTA, and bottle-grade chip is primarily driven by the cost side. Sustained pressure on international crude oil prices has directly lowered the valuation center of upstream feedstocks like PX and PTA. Meanwhile, the anticipated peak season rebound in textile and apparel orders failed to materialize, with downstream weaving mills showing weak purchasing intentions, leading to rising inventory pressure at polyester plants. The nearly 2% drop in staple fiber indicates that the market has begun pricing in pessimistic demand expectations.
Bottle-grade chip 2607 fell 2.75% to 8,122 points, leading the decline. This suggests that the fast-moving consumer goods sector is slowing its procurement of PET resin. PTA, the key link in the polyester chain, fell 1.75% to 6,296 points, indicating that profit margins across the entire polyester chain are being compressed. For spinning and fabric companies reliant on staple fiber and PTA, the continued decline in raw material prices may trigger a wait-and-see attitude among downstream customers, further dragging down shipment volumes.
Cotton Textile Side: Structural Support Behind Cotton Yarn Resilience
In contrast to the chemical fiber sector's slump, cotton yarn contract 2607 bucked the trend, rising 0.16% to 22,390 points. Cotton 2609 fell only 0.09% to 16,460 points, showing strong resilience. What does this divergence mean?
On the supply side, domestic commercial cotton inventories are at multi-year lows, and there is no significant increase expected in new cotton planting areas, providing bottom support for cotton prices. On the demand side, the slight rise in cotton yarn prices reflects more of a phased restocking by downstream weaving mills rather than a substantial recovery in end-user orders. Current spreads between cotton yarn and cotton (spinning margins) are at reasonable levels, maintaining some production enthusiasm.
However, the sustainability of cotton yarn's strength depends on the substitution effect of chemical fibers. The sharp drop in staple fiber prices has widened the cotton-polyester spread, potentially shifting some orders toward blended or pure chemical fiber products. For pure cotton yarn mills, this means potential loss of market share. If cotton prices remain high while chemical fiber prices continue to fall, the cost advantage of cotton textile mills will be further eroded.
Industry Chain Transmission: Time Lag and Game Between Futures and Spot
The divergence in futures is now transmitting to the spot market. Lower chemical fiber prices theoretically benefit downstream weaving and dyeing companies' cost control, but in practice, end customers often demand simultaneous price reductions on finished fabrics, preventing margin improvements in the middle chain. The firmness of cotton yarn presents a dilemma for grey fabric mills: accepting higher cotton yarn prices makes it difficult to raise finished product prices, while switching to chemical fiber alternatives risks customer dissatisfaction with quality and hand feel.
From an industrial cluster perspective, raw material procurement in chemical fiber hubs like Shaoxing and Shengze has clearly slowed, with companies mainly consuming existing inventories. In contrast, cotton yarn procurement in cotton textile clusters like Nantong and Gaoyang remains relatively stable, but new orders are mostly small and urgent, lacking long-term order support. This "short and fast" procurement model suggests downstream players are not optimistic about the outlook.