According to the latest public data from China Customs, in March 2026, China imported approximately 210,000 tons of cotton yarn, an increase of about 80,000 tons month-on-month, representing a growth of roughly 61.5%, and a year-on-year surge of about 65.7%. The first-quarter cumulative imports reached 510,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 49.8%. For the 2025/26 season (September 2025 to March 2026), cumulative imports hit about 1.1 million tons, up 31.0% year-on-year.
The Demand Logic Behind the Data
The monthly import volume of 210,000 tons is close to the peak level of the same period in 2019 before the pandemic. The month-on-month surge of 80,000 tons indicates that orders delayed during the Chinese New Year holiday in February were released intensively in March, with intensity far exceeding previous years. More notably, the 65.7% year-on-year increase is not due to a low base effect—March 2025 itself was already a peak import season.
The first-quarter volume of 510,000 tons accounts for roughly 35% of the estimated annual imports, indicating a significantly front-loaded import pace. For domestic spinning mills, the direct signal is that downstream weaving and garment export orders are recovering rapidly, while the supply gap for domestic cotton and cotton yarn continues to widen.
New Variables in the Global Cotton Yarn Trade
As the world's largest cotton yarn consumer market, changes in China's import demand directly affect the capacity deployment of major suppliers such as Vietnam, India, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan. The data for the first seven months of the 2025/26 season—1.1 million tons imported with a 31% year-on-year increase—suggests that China's dependence on cotton yarn imports is systematically rising.
Three major drivers underpin this trend:
- Domestic cotton prices remain persistently higher than international prices, giving imported yarn a clear cost advantage
- Spinning capacity in Southeast Asia continues to expand, with Vietnam gaining competitiveness due to tariff preferences in the US and EU markets
- Stricter domestic environmental policies have led to the closure or consolidation of some small and medium-sized spinning mills, with the capacity gap filled by imports
Transmission Effects on the Industrial Chain
For domestic cotton textile enterprises, the surge in imported yarn means intensified competition. In coastal industrial clusters like Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu, weaving mills using imported yarn are experiencing faster inventory turnover, while those relying on domestic yarn face order loss pressure.
For upstream cotton growers and ginners, imported yarn substitutes for some domestic cotton demand. Combined with the long-term impact of Xinjiang cotton export restrictions, the upside for domestic cotton prices is constrained. In the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton consumption is expected to be flat year-on-year, but the cotton equivalent of imported yarn has already reached about 1.5 million tons, equivalent to a quarter of domestic cotton production.