5,055 RMB per ton. That is the new benchmark price for domestic ethylene glycol as of May 13, 2026, representing a rebound of over 200 RMB from early May lows. The market is undergoing a structural supply-demand reshaping driven by three converging forces: a near-cliff drop in imports, accelerating inventory drawdown, and stable downstream demand.
Import Cliff: Middle East Supply Shrinkage is the Biggest Variable
The core driver of the current price uptrend is on the supply side, with the biggest variable coming from the Middle East. According to public data from China Customs, April ethylene glycol imports fell below 300,000 tons, hitting a multi-year low. A more urgent signal comes from May: industry data shows expected port arrivals of only 54,600 tons, indicating persistently low inbound flows.
Behind this are two overlapping supply chain bottlenecks. First, Saudi Arabia, China's largest ethylene glycol import source (accounting for over 55% of total imports), has seven plants with a combined 4.17 million tons/year of capacity shut down due to previous attacks. Second, shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have cut off the key channel for Middle East supplies to Asia. Together, these bottlenecks have nearly halted import replenishment.
Cost pressures are also at play. Brent crude remains elevated around $110/barrel, significantly raising the production cost center for naphtha-based ethylene glycol. While coal-based ethylene glycol maintains reasonable margins due to stable coal prices, its volume cannot fill the import gap, making the overall tight supply pattern unlikely to change in the short term.
Accelerated Drawdown: What 738,000 Tons of Inventory Means
The impact of the import disruption is accelerating at the port inventory level. As of May 8, East China main port ethylene glycol inventory fell to 738,000 tons, a week-on-week drop of 110,000 tons, reaching a multi-year low. More notable is the speed of drawdown: during the May Day holiday, average daily shipments from East China ports rose 30%-47.54% week-on-week, indicating strong downstream offtake, while arrivals remained low, accelerating passive inventory consumption.
The spot market is already showing clear structural tightness. The mainstream spot quote for polyester-grade ethylene glycol in East China is 4,918-4,920 RMB/ton, with the spot basis strengthening and spot prices at a clear premium over futures. This suggests tight availability of tradable cargoes, strong seller hoarding sentiment, and compressed bargaining space for downstream buyers.
Demand Resilience: The Support of 80% Polyester Operating Rates
While demand is not the ignition source for this rally, it provides solid bottom support for prices. Downstream polyester operating rates remain around 80%, and terminal weaving demand, despite seasonal minor fluctuations, has not seen significant capacity cuts. The surge in East China port shipments during the May Day holiday also confirms the resilience of downstream demand.
The combination of "supply contraction + stable demand" has put the ethylene glycol market into a typical destocking cycle. As long as import replenishment cannot recover quickly, port inventories will likely continue to fall, pushing the price center of gravity higher.
Risks and Variables: Can the Short-Term Strength Last?
In the near term, bullish factors are concentrated. The restart progress of Saudi plants, the restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil price volatility, and port arrival and inventory changes are the four key variables determining the subsequent trend.
If Middle East supply remains unrecovered before June, ethylene glycol prices could break above 5,200 RMB/ton. Conversely, if Saudi plants restart or the Strait resumes normal shipping, leading to a rapid rebound in import arrivals, prices face the risk of a phased correction. For downstream polyester companies, raw material procurement strategies at current levels require greater precision.