China's textile industry is witnessing an unprecedented surge in raw material imports. According to the latest Customs data, March 2026 saw cotton imports reach 180,000 tons, a staggering 137% year-on-year increase and up 10,000 tons from February. Q1 total imports stood at 550,000 tons, up 62% year-on-year. For the current season (September 2025 to March 2026), cumulative imports hit 1.05 million tons, a 28% annual rise.
These figures reflect deep shifts in the supply-demand balance of domestic and international cotton markets. The import surge is not accidental but driven by widening price spreads, adjustments in state reserve release schedules, and evolving downstream order structures. For sourcing teams, this means reduced cost predictability; for domestic cotton farmers, it signals growing competition for market share.
The Logic Behind Import Growth
While the month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons is modest, the 137% year-on-year jump is the real headline. This leap points directly to the expanding price gap between domestic and international cotton. Since early 2026, global cotton prices have fallen due to higher production forecasts and weak demand, while domestic prices remained relatively firm due to limited reserve releases and uneven new-crop quality. The spread has exceeded 1,500 RMB per ton at times, making imported cotton significantly cheaper for spinners.
Quarterly data reinforces this trend. Q1 imports averaged 183,000 tons per month, far above historical levels. This is not a short-term spike but a deliberate shift in procurement strategy. Mid-to-high-end yarn producers are increasingly relying on U.S. and Brazilian cotton for their superior fiber length and consistency compared to some domestic varieties.
Season-to-date data shows cumulative imports of 1.05 million tons, up 28% year-on-year, suggesting the full-year total could break records. This will directly impact domestic cotton regions like Xinjiang, Shandong, and Hebei, where slower inventory digestion and limited price upside are expected.
Downstream Impact and Price Outlook
The influx of imported cotton is reshaping yarn pricing dynamics. Typically, the price spread between domestic and imported cotton passes through to yarn and then to garment manufacturers. But the current situation is more complex. On one hand, the cost advantage of imported cotton leads mills to use it for standard yarns, reducing competitiveness of domestic-cotton yarns. On the other hand, export orders increasingly require traceability regarding cotton origin, especially concerning Xinjiang cotton.
For weaving mills, especially those exporting, using imported cotton helps avoid supply chain scrutiny. This means imported cotton carries a 'premium' not just in price but in trade facilitation. Import volumes are expected to remain high in coming months, barring a sharp narrowing of price spreads or new policy interventions.
Looking at price expectations, sustained imports will cap domestic price rebounds. However, international cotton prices are already near historic lows, limiting further downside. If major producing regions face weather issues or demand picks up in the second half, prices could rebound quickly, raising import costs. Textile firms should take advantage of the current window to lock in forward positions.