180,000 tons—that was China's cotton import volume in March 2026. Up just 10,000 tons month-on-month, but soaring 137% year-on-year. This figure not only set a new monthly record in recent years, but pushed Q1 2026 total imports to 550,000 tons, up 62% year-on-year. Against the backdrop of cautious optimism in the textile industry, the import side has taken an almost aggressive trajectory.
Three Drivers Behind the Surge
The first driver is the widening domestic-international price spread. Since the second half of 2025, international cotton prices have weakened under global production increase expectations, while domestic prices remained relatively firm due to quota tightening and mill demand. By Q1 2026, the spread reached RMB 1,500-2,000 per ton, directly stimulating the cost advantage of imported cotton. For spinning mills sensitive to raw material costs, this spread means saving hundreds of yuan per ton, making concentrated procurement almost inevitable.
The second driver is the accelerated use of import quotas. Sliding-duty and processing trade quotas for 2026 were distributed early in the year, and mills chose to concentrate orders in Q1 to lock in low prices. Customs data shows that for the 2025/26 season (September to March), cumulative imports reached 1.05 million tons, up 28% year-on-year. This indicates a significantly faster quota utilization pace than in previous years, with some mills already using remaining quota for forward orders.
The third driver comes from a phased recovery in downstream demand. After the Spring Festival in 2026, the domestic textile market experienced a 'mini spring'—grey fabric sales picked up, yarn inventories fell from highs, and some products even saw tight order schedules. This short-term demand pulse directly transmitted to upstream raw material procurement, especially for high-count and compact spinning mills that rely heavily on imported cotton.
Industry Transmission: From Port to Mill
The import surge first impacts port inventories. Major cotton import ports like Qingdao, Zhangjiagang, and Shanghai saw bonded warehouse capacity near saturation by late March, with some warehouses even experiencing queuing for storage. High port inventories mean ample short-term supply, putting downward pressure on domestic cotton prices. However, a significant portion of these imports has already been locked in through pre-sales or point-price transactions, so actual tradable volumes are not as loose as the headline data suggests.
For spinning mills, the large arrival of imported cotton directly reduces raw material costs. For 32-count pure cotton yarn, using imported cotton blend saves about RMB 800-1,000 per ton compared to domestic cotton. In a fiercely competitive yarn market, this cost advantage can determine order allocation. But the flip side is that over-reliance on imported cotton introduces exchange rate risk and delivery time uncertainty.
For upstream cotton planting and processing, high imports mean increased competitive pressure on domestic cotton. Although Xinjiang cotton output saw a slight increase in the 2025/26 season, its quality premium has been squeezed by imports, with some low-grade Xinjiang cotton even facing sluggish sales. If this 'strong external, weak internal' pattern persists, it may affect farmers' planting intentions for the new season.
Future Outlook: Can High Growth Continue?
In the short term, Q2 imports will likely remain high. First, the domestic-international price spread is unlikely to narrow quickly, as international prices lack upward momentum. Second, although mill inventories have improved after Q1 restocking, some mills are still executing forward orders and have further procurement needs. However, from April onward, port inventory pressure will become apparent, and together with uncertainty about downstream order sustainability, import growth may slow in Q3.
Notably, the total cotton import quota for 2026 is roughly flat with last year. This means that after concentrated use in H1, the import space for H2 will be compressed. Mills must balance 'low-price procurement' with 'quota rhythm' to avoid the passive situation of having price opportunities but no quota.