The textile industry delivered a mixed performance in the first quarter of 2026: intermediate exports climbed steadily, while finished apparel remained in an adjustment phase. Adding to the complexity, crude oil prices have breached $100 per barrel for the first time in years, pressuring the entire supply chain from the cost side.
Export Divergence: Intermediates Strengthen, Apparel Under Pressure
According to the latest data from China Customs, from January to April 2026, cumulative exports of textile yarns, fabrics, and products reached $46.896 billion, up 2.3% year-on-year, an increase of approximately $1.06 billion compared to the same period in 2025. While not spectacular, this growth demonstrates notable resilience amid global trade volatility.
In contrast, cumulative exports of apparel and clothing accessories totaled $44.231 billion, down 0.9% from $44.611 billion in the same period last year. The gap of about $2.665 billion between the two categories highlights the structural divergence: the strength of intermediate exports partially offsets the weakness in finished garments.
Why are intermediate products outperforming? Two key factors: first, China's technological maturity and supply chain stability in textile intermediates have created a hard-to-replace delivery advantage; second, production volatility in some Southeast Asian regions has prompted overseas brands to shift orders to China for supply chain security. This is essentially a 'China dividend' from the ongoing global textile supply chain restructuring.
On the apparel side, pressure comes from sluggish end-consumer demand and competition from low-cost producers. Overseas brands are slowing their destocking pace, leading to fewer new orders. Combined with cost competition from Vietnam and Bangladesh in low-end garment manufacturing, China's labor-intensive apparel exports face a tough near-term outlook.
Imports Surge 19%: A Signal of Rising Production Activity
Mirroring the export divergence, imports have surged significantly. From January to April 2026, cumulative imports of textile yarns, fabrics, and products reached $3.7739 billion, a sharp 19.1% increase from $3.1695 billion in the same period of 2025.
This import surge is not a negative sign; it directly indicates accelerating production activity in China's textile industry. Downstream weaving and garment manufacturers are releasing restocking demand, and the domestic market is steadily recovering, driving demand for imported high-end fabrics and specialty yarns. This suggests that the industry's production recovery is moving into a substantive capacity release phase, not just a paper rebound.
Oil Breaks $100: Cost Pass-Through Accelerates, Margins Shrink
On May 11, 2026, WTI crude oil broke through the $100 per barrel mark, up 4.8% intraday. For the textile industry, this is more than a numerical milestone—it signals a full-scale cost escalation.
Petroleum is the core upstream raw material for synthetic fibers like polyester and nylon. Every $10 increase in oil prices raises synthetic fiber production costs by approximately 3%-5%. Since synthetic fibers account for 30%-50% of textile production costs, price fluctuations quickly propagate through weaving, dyeing, and logistics.
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are hit hardest. They often lack bargaining power and inventory buffers, making it difficult to pass on cost increases downstream. With limited room to raise prices due to weak global demand, their profit margins are being squeezed severely.
Survival Strategies in a Structural Shift
Overall, the first four months of 2026 reveal a clear industry picture: double growth in intermediate exports and raw material imports, a slight decline in apparel exports, and rising cost pressure. This requires companies to simultaneously strengthen product innovation, cost control, and market adaptability.