In the first four months of 2026, China's textile and apparel trade presented a mixed picture: textile intermediate goods exports grew steadily, while apparel exports contracted slightly, widening the growth gap to 3.2 percentage points. Meanwhile, international crude oil prices have once again breached the $100 per barrel mark, adding pressure to the already strained chemical fiber supply chain.
Divergence between intermediates and finished goods
According to public data from the General Administration of Customs, from January to April 2026, China's exports of textile yarns, fabrics, and related products totaled $46.896 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, up about $1.06 billion from the same period in 2025. This growth is mainly driven by mature intermediate products such as yarns and fabrics, which continue to attract orders from overseas weaving manufacturers due to stable delivery and well-established supply chains.
In contrast, apparel exports for the same period reached $44.231 billion, down 0.9% year-on-year, slightly below the $44.611 billion recorded in 2025. Weak global consumer demand, slower destocking by overseas brands, and competition from low-cost production in Southeast Asia have put pressure on China's labor-intensive garment exports. However, the narrowing decline suggests the industry's fundamentals remain resilient.
This structural divergence is not a short-term fluctuation but a long-term trend driven by the restructuring of global textile supply chains. In times of uncertainty, overseas buyers prefer semi-finished over finished goods to retain local production flexibility, directly boosting China's yarn and fabric exports.
Surging imports signal domestic demand recovery
Mirroring the shift in export composition, imports have rebounded strongly. In the first four months of 2026, China's imports of textile yarns, fabrics, and related products totaled $3.7739 billion, a sharp 19.1% year-on-year increase, far exceeding the $3.1695 billion recorded in 2025. The import growth rate is more than eight times that of exports, a disparity worth noting.
The surge in imports reflects faster production pace and concentrated restocking demand among domestic textile enterprises. Higher operating rates in downstream weaving and garment manufacturing have driven demand for high-end fabrics and specialty yarns. This data strongly confirms the recovery of domestic textile production activity and the increasingly full operation of the industrial chain.
For buyers, this means competition for raw materials in the domestic market is intensifying, especially for high-end imported fabrics. The procurement window may shorten, making early price locking and stable supply channels more critical.
Oil above $100: cost pressure cascades from chemical fibers
On May 11, 2026, WTI crude oil prices broke through $100 per barrel again, rising 4.8% intraday. Oil is the core upstream raw material for chemical fibers, and higher prices directly increase procurement costs for polyester, nylon, and other synthetic fibers. Chemical fibers account for over 80% of textile raw materials, so price fluctuations quickly ripple through the entire supply chain.
More concerning, higher oil prices not only affect chemical fiber production but also push up costs for weaving, dyeing, finishing, and logistics. Small and medium-sized enterprises are struggling with cost control, and profit margins are being squeezed further.
For foreign trade companies, sustained high crude oil prices mean that pricing for chemical fiber fabrics may face upward pressure in the second half of the year. Export contracts should incorporate more flexible pricing terms, such as floating pricing or shorter validity periods, to hedge against raw material volatility.