Night Session Divergence: Cotton and Yarn Edge Up, Polyester Chain Under Pressure

Cotton rose, staple fiber fell. The night session on May 13 on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange showed a clear divergence: Cotton 2609 closed at 16,580 yuan/ton, up 0.64%; Cotton yarn 2607 at 22,455 yuan/ton, up 0.45%; while Staple fiber 2607 fell to 8,044 yuan/ton, down 0.64%; PTA 2609 also dropped 0.53% to 6,374 yuan/ton. The cotton and polyester chains moved in opposite directions in the same session.

This divergence is not accidental. Cotton has been oscillating in the 16,000-17,000 yuan/ton range since early 2025, recently supported by expectations of a reduced domestic planting area and low inventory restocking downstream. Cotton yarn followed the raw material upward but with narrower gains, suggesting that spinning mills are still facing cost pass-through pressure.

Why the polyester chain is under pressure

The weakness in staple fiber and PTA is primarily driven by upstream factors. PX supply remains ample, and international oil prices have stabilized around $70/barrel, weakening cost support. PTA operating rates are high, while downstream polyester mills report sluggish sales and terminal weaving mills are seeing seasonal capacity utilization declines. Staple fiber, as an intermediate, suffers from both weak raw material costs and shrinking demand.

Bottle-grade chip also weakened, with the 2607 contract falling 1.27% to 8,246 yuan/ton. The continuous capacity expansion in chip production has created supply pressure, and the peak beverage season has not met procurement expectations, leading to a bearish view on short-term supply-demand balance. Overall, the weakness in the polyester chain reflects a mismatch between rising midstream inventories and tepid end-user demand.

The seesaw effect between cotton and chemical fiber

The night session divergence actually reflects the different cyclical positions of the two industrial chains. On the cotton side: supply-side reduction expectations and potential autumn/winter order launches create cautious optimism. On the chemical fiber side: the capacity release cycle is not over, textile and apparel export growth is slowing, and destocking pressure on polyester products persists.

For textile enterprises, this means raw material procurement strategies must be more targeted. The mild rise in cotton and cotton yarn does not create urgency for locking costs, but the decline in staple fiber and PTA may offer a window for polyester fabric buyers.

Practical recommendations

For sourcing departments - Cotton and cotton yarn: current prices are at the mid-range for the year. If autumn/winter orders are confirmed, consider building regular inventory in batches to avoid spot premium spikes from concentrated restocking. - Staple fiber and PTA: short-term weakness may continue. Procure on a need-to basis, avoid bottom-fishing, and closely monitor PX and crude oil signals. - Bottle-grade chip: under capacity expansion cycle, medium-term prices face downward pressure. Consider long-term contracts to lock in current low levels.

For foreign trade companies - Cotton product exports: as RMB exchange rate volatility and cotton costs rise simultaneously, shorten quotation cycles to 1-2 weeks to hedge dual risks. - Chemical fiber product exports: falling polyester raw material costs help control export costs. Use this to enhance price competitiveness of polyester products, but watch for destination port inventory and anti-dumping dynamics. - Comprehensive strategy: use futures or forward contracts to lock in key raw material costs, especially for orders with high staple fiber and PTA usage.