The latest price list from Zhili Cotton Fabric City on May 13 reveals a rare market phenomenon: since May 10, prices of all 47 monitored grey fabric varieties have remained completely flat, with no increases or decreases. From 16s cotton grey to 60s combed down-proof fabric, from rayon crepe to T/R gabardine, prices are frozen.
At the same time, another signal emerged: sales volume has rebounded. This combination of zero price movement and rising sales is unusual in the textile market. Typically, price stability either indicates sluggish trading or a perfect match of supply and demand. The latter scenario is more likely here, as buyers and sellers have reached a tacit agreement at current levels.
The Logic Behind the Price Freeze
Breaking down the list, the 'zero fluctuation' in different categories has distinct implications. Cotton grey fabrics, the largest segment, from standard 30s poplin to 21s drill, have remained flat for multiple reporting cycles. This suggests a fragile balance between upstream cotton costs and downstream garment orders.
Rayon grey fabrics deserve special attention. Products like 30s crepe and 32s plain weave also held steady, despite recent volatility in dissolving pulp prices. The ability of Zhili mills to maintain prices indicates they may have locked in raw material costs through earlier purchases, or that end-order negotiation margins are already squeezed to the limit.
T/R and T/C grey fabrics are the mainstay of export orders. The entire T80/R20 and T65/C35 series showed no change, particularly the 45s T/C poplin, which has been quoted at 5.40 RMB/meter for weeks. This reflects rigid cost control by overseas buyers, leaving mills with virtually no room to raise prices.
What the Sales Rebound Means
The sales rebound is the brightest spot in this otherwise flat report. Increased volume against frozen prices suggests two possibilities: either downstream garment factories and traders are placing early orders for summer top-ups or autumn pre-stocking, or the market believes current prices are at a cyclical bottom and is actively building inventory.
Given Zhili's status as China's children's wear production base, the former is more plausible. Children's wear fabric orders are seasonal, and mid-May is the transition period from summer to autumn. The sales uptick likely reflects brands testing the waters for the upcoming peak season.
However, the lack of price movement alongside volume indicates demand is not yet concentrated. Buyers remain cautious, continuing the pattern of just-in-time purchasing in small batches. This 'volume up, price flat' pattern is essentially a weak recovery—market confidence is returning, but it's far from optimistic.
Outlook: Consolidation Likely
Based on Zhili market data, Textile Circle expects grey fabric prices to consolidate over the next 2-4 weeks. A sharp price increase is unlikely as upstream cotton and chemical fiber raw materials show no clear cost-push signal. Downside risk is also limited, as weaving mills are already operating at thin or negative margins and have little incentive to cut prices.
- Cotton: Watch Zhengzhou cotton futures. If the main contract stabilizes above 15,500 RMB/ton, Zhili cotton grey prices may see a tentative 0.05-0.10 RMB/meter increase.
- Rayon: If dissolving pulp prices continue to rise, rayon grey may break the deadlock first, with 30s plain weave potentially moving to 5.10 RMB/meter.
- T/C: Closely linked to crude oil and PTA trends. If polyester staple fiber prices fluctuate more than 200 RMB/ton, T/C grey will follow.