In the first four months of 2026, China's textile and apparel foreign trade presented a mixed picture: textile exports reached $46.896 billion, up 2.3% year-on-year, while apparel exports totaled $44.231 billion, down 0.9%. Behind this pattern of strong intermediates and weak finished goods, international oil prices have broken through $100 per barrel for the first time in years, bringing a new round of cost shocks to the entire industry.
Export Divergence: Why Intermediates Show Greater Resilience
Exports of textile yarns, fabrics, and other intermediates grew steadily, with cumulative exports in the first four months increasing by over $1 billion compared to the same period in 2025. This growth is not accidental. China's textile intermediates have mature processes and a responsive supply chain, playing a 'stabilizer' role in the global textile chain. When production capacity fluctuates in some Southeast Asian regions, overseas buyers tend to turn to China for high-quality yarns and fabrics with reliable delivery, providing core support for intermediate exports.
In contrast, the slight decline in apparel exports reflects weakness in the end-consumer market. Overseas brands are slowing down inventory destocking, leading to a contraction in new orders, while competition from low-end apparel capacity in Southeast Asia continues to divert orders. However, the decline of only 0.9% indicates that the domestic apparel export base remains stable, and the adjustment is more moderate and structural. For buyers, this means intermediate suppliers have stronger bargaining power, while apparel OEMs need to be more competitive in pricing and delivery.
Import Surge: A Clear Signal of Domestic Demand Recovery
In contrast to the export divergence, textile intermediate imports reached $3.774 billion in the first four months, a sharp 19.1% increase year-on-year. This growth rate far exceeds market expectations and directly reflects the resurgence of domestic textile production activity. Downstream weaving and garment manufacturers are releasing concentrated restocking demand, with imports of high-end fabrics and specialty yarns particularly strong.
This surge in imports means two things for the industry: first, the domestic market is steadily recovering, with consumer confidence improving; second, as domestic companies upgrade their technology, demand for differentiated, high-performance raw materials is expanding, which in turn forces domestic raw material suppliers to improve product grades. For foreign trade companies, the recovery of the domestic market also provides a buffer against overseas risks.
Oil Breaks $100: The Chain Reaction of Cost Pass-Through
As of May 11, 2026, WTI crude oil prices broke through the $100 per barrel mark, with a daily increase of 4.8%. Oil is the core upstream raw material for chemical fibers such as polyester and nylon, and rising oil prices directly push up the procurement cost of chemical fibers. Since chemical fiber raw materials account for a high proportion of textile production, price fluctuations quickly pass through to yarn, fabric, and even garment stages.
More importantly, rising oil prices not only affect the raw material end but also simultaneously push up costs across the entire chain, including weaving, dyeing and finishing, and logistics. For small and medium-sized textile enterprises that already operate on thin margins, cost pressures are further exacerbated. Companies that rely heavily on chemical fiber products and lack pricing power may see their profit margins severely squeezed. The overall pace of industry profitability recovery will be hampered as a result.